'High' chance of tropical development in Gulf of Mexico next week

Posted June 19, 2017

Once data is collected from hurricane hunters, it can be plugged into forecast models to get a better idea of how this system may evolve.

Any storms that pop up will rain themselves dry by 11PM leaving us with lows in the low 70s and partly cloudy skies. Others take the system on a more west-northwest track toward TX. However, formation chance for the next five days had been increased to 80 percent.

Meteorologist still don't have a clear idea on where it will go, how fast it will travel, and exactly how strong it will get.

There are actualy two "invests" or areas of investigation now in the tropics. Still a ton of unanswered questions about Invest 93-L. However, recent satellite imagery & surface analysis indicates at least some attempts at organization with low pressure very near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

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Heavy rains are expected over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba over the next several days. When systems form in the Gulf of Mexico during the month of June, most storms tend to be wide, ragged and most of the convection keeps to its eastern side (of direction). A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico could help push even more moisture into Northeast Mississippi and West Alabama.

Southeast Texas will most likely be shielded from any disturbance that develops, thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure that will continue to hover over the state.

As of Saturday morning, though, the American and European forecast models both hint that this disturbance will have a hard time gaining much strength.

Beyond Monday the forecast is still up in the air as we wait to see what happens in the Gulf of Mexico.