Weak tropical system likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico

Posted June 20, 2017

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of the warning area on Monday night, making outside preparations hard or unsafe.

A Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday, if necessary. With this development, the NHC is issuing a forecast cone and advisories on the feature as it is expected to impact areas of the Caribbean near the Windward Islands by Tuesday morning.

The system approaching the Winward Islands has 40 miles per hour sustained winds, but does not yet have a closed circulation to formally declare it a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Arlene formed back in April, almost two months before the formal start of hurricane season on June 1. This system is going to continue to strengthen over the next few days. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bonaire, Curacao and Aruba.

Rain totals could reach up to 4 inches across south Alabama this week, raising flooding concerns especially near the coast. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast track of this system: will it go west to Texas or north to Florida's panhandle?

The tropical disturbance is forecast to move toward the Louisiana Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

More important for our area is a broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean.

Check the Palm Beach Post storm tracking map.

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The next named storm will be Bret, followed by Cindy.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

Tonight expect scattered storms, with damaging wind and hail potential.

It is expected to dissipate in about 72 hours.

The potential development of this system into a tropical storm isn't the only area to monitor in the tropics.

Thursday into Friday we may see some influence from a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.